"It is a strange fate that we should suffer so much fear and doubt over so small a thing..."

Hello and welcome back to my blog

I have long thought that the quote in the title of this week's post sums up The Ashes contest perfectly (I won't tell you till the end where it comes from by the way - see if you can guess). This season it seems even more appropriate given the conundrum that faces me and fellow cricket fans looking at two seemingly well-matched teams, not great teams but talented and certainly eager XIs. Many commentators seem almost irritated that the New Zealand cricket team is distracting them from this task (tough luck) however now that the campaign for a first series win in India (or even a draw) is going quickly down the 'gurgler', my attention switches to Australia as easily as the wording in this sentence. Some might say that, given the 4-0 defeat in Bangladesh, ambitions for winning that series began IN the gurgler but I digress

The two teams that will line up in Brisbane this Thursday are led by two tired captains who must realise that they have both played a great deal of cricket in their careers, during this year and will have to play in the longest World Cup yet in the new year. Both captains are not known for flare or imagination and both have suffered the lows of Ashes defeat and the high of Ashes victory. They must both use the memory of these experiences to overcome their defensive, cricket-killing-because-they're-not-prepared-to-take-a-chance, barely-club-level captaincy and push their troops to victory. I firmly believe that this may be the factor that ensures victory for one side or the other - this is a long series and will be hard fought in conditions stretching from a seamer at the Gabba in November to a dust-bowl at the SCG in January (with a WACA flyer in the middle hopefully). Strauss leads a team with more senior players but only ONE (Pietersen) has tasted any kind of success in Australia (obviously I mean in a personal sense) and Ponting has the home turf advantage that helps Australia just like any other cricket team.


(yes Ricky you hit the ball with that side) (Andrew don't drop them!)

Predicting the performance of these captains is impossible so lets look at some points we can predict:

• First, if England wish to WIN the series they must win at the Gabba and with seam-friendly conditions they should be in with a good chance - their best in years. The reasons for this are that Australia have such a good record there (16 wins and 4 draws in their last 20 matches there!) and have used victories here to upset opposing teams, with the flat wickets of Adelaide and co to come a good result here is crucial and any touring side knows that wins become harder to manufacture as a tour goes on - fatigue sets in to rot the resolve
  Second, if Australia wish to WIN back The Ashes the need Mitchell Johnson to bowl like Wasim Akram and not like James Franklin. Poor as his bowling action is, he has the fitness and strength to bowl some devastating spells at key times - the kind that can steal victories in places like Adelaide and Melbourne. They don't need him trying to imitate Harmison's efforts of 2006 (where the first ball of the series ended at 2nd slip and quickly announced the end of that particular campaign before it had time to begin)
• Third, the Australian batsmen (Ponting, Clarke and Hussey) of real class will come good at some point in this series and cannot be matched by England (Trott, Pietersen and Collingwood). All three are very experienced in their conditions and dominated the last Ashes contest in Australia.
• Fourth, Shane Watson will resume his normal habit of getting out LBW to quality bowling
• Fifth, Graeme Swann will need to think on his feet and be flexible with his plans because there is no way that the Australian think-tank hasn't planned for his influence on this series. They know he is the key difference between the two bowling attacks and will/should have formulated plans for countering, negating or even defeating him - spinners have met their end in Aus before

Personally I think a drawn series is quite possible (where England retain The Ashes but don't win the series itself). This would include English victory in Brisbane but defeat at Perth or Melbourne where their attack won't be as affective. That's about as far as I would even CONSIDER putting moeny in this fight. before I finish here are some links to previous Ashes moments and any thoughts inspired by them:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ClNsK1bX23A
Ponting's 196 from two years ago to set up victory at the Gabba. He lost the urn the year before and with this innings, made an emphatic statement of intent - really a threat - of what was to come. Runs are his best method of captaincy and will be crucial to winningthe series
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1z6P9LCRiU
Johnson's 7 wickets at Perth against South Africa, this kind of bowling will be the best England can expect - at least they won't have to face these two again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aA2mJP-UgPY&feature=related (Warne)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IQPMU44IPE&feature=related (McGrath)
Sadly neither side will likely offer the following kind of innings...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPOOhFmUprA (Gilchrist second-fastest test century) ...but what team could

Personally I don't really have a dog in this race and thus don't really care what the result is - I am looking forward to a tight contest though and the ingredients are all there. As for the quote in the title for this post, Sean Bean said those words in The Fellowship of the Ring 10 years ago




Well that's it from here and I hope you join me again
It's good bye for now