Hello and
welcome back to my blog
I am
sitting, about to watch the opening session of the 2015 Ashes series hosted by
England. The hosts have won the toss and
will bat first. Before we get too far
into Day 1 of this ever-fascinating contest I would like to share my thoughts
on the likely outcomes of each test and the series.
I will offer
a quick word on the lead up for both teams but – as many Ashes battles before
us have shown – series that precede the ancient contest seldom offer true
insight into the strength of either team.
Ponting’s 2005 team arrived in England having swept all before them
(including India IN India as you may recall), Australia again looked strong
before the 2010-11 thrashing at the hands of Strauss and Cook (700+ runs) and
who will forget (I assure the commentators won’t let us forget during this
series) the 5-0 result inflicted on England mere weeks after they retained the
Ashes at home 3-0.
England hardly
looked convincing while drawing series against West Indies (away) and New
Zealand (home), fielding an occasionally brittle batting line-up and a
too-often toothless bowling attack. The
ODI success against the touring New Zealand side has renewed confidence in the
home team for the Ashes but Test cricket is a very different beast. Australia on the other hand have barely
looked back from their loss two years ago (yes we are witnessing two Ashes
series in England in a 24 month period) with their Ashes dominance at home,
away wins in South Africa and the West Indies and a dominant home summer
culminating in World Cup victory. The
form guide suggests Australian dominance with rain alone preventing another 5-0
result.
Then there
are the opposing XIs. The teams have
been confirmed with Watson in for Australia despite some brilliant early-tour
form from Marsh; in his latest bid for brilliance Watson will bat in the middle
to lower order. Meanwhile, England retain
the bits-and-pieces services of Moeen Ali in a similar position as Watson;
there was a great deal of talk before the match that leg-spinner Rashid (who
figured against New Zealand in the ODIs last month) may start but no luck. Both are conservative selections, clearly not
based on form although both may feature later in the series if fortune goes
against either team. The other choice
that leapt off the team sheet at me was the retention of Gary Balance. He remains at no.3 when I am not entirely
sure why he is still in the XI at all – his technical and form deficiencies will
be on show against Australia’s fast bowlers just as they were against Southee
and Boult (probably more so). The mind-set
here suggests Australian dominance with rain alone preventing another 5-0
result.
The pitches –
“always of vital importance” R.I.P. R.B.C.T.C – by which I really mean the
grounds, are a favourite indicator of mine as to the likely result of the
series. Cardiff is up first and despite
the swing and very variable bounce
that I am witnessing as I write this, the draw is always even money at the
Welsh ground; although tell Anderson & Panesar how easy the draw comes
about at Cardiff! Next week is Lords and
before 2009 I would have chalked this one up for Australia without hesitation
because England had not won there since 1934 when Verity took 14 wickets, but
they have erased that curse in recent memory with two dominant wins. However with the re-emergence of Australia’s
bowling attack I would say they should win this match. For Round 3 the tour will move to Edgbaston
where it often goes England’s way and if they can snatch a victory against the
flow it may well be here. Trent Bridge
is a bowler’s ground – historically if not recently – and will depend largely
on whether Anderson bowls well. The
series will be completed at the Oval which should be a batting paradise with
some assistance to the spinners.
Therefore you can assume that Ali will finally be dropped in time for
Rashid to be debuted hastily as an afterthought and swatted away by a dominant
Australian batting line-up as an afterthought.
So I think you’re looking at either a 3-1 or 2-1 result in Australia’s
favour. This is equivalent to a no-show
for England so rain alone can prevent another 5-0 result…
The stars do
seem to be aligned in Australia’s favour this time – what a difference 24
months can make! – but in England you never quite know what will happen. The weather can ruin a team’s innings in a
session no matter what the pitch is doing, a bowler can lose the plot in the
face of the Lords slope and injuries can take their toll. All three of these things have undone
seemingly dominant Australian teams in the past and I see no reason to dispel these
fears just yet.
When it
comes down to it I would highlight a couple things to keep in mind:
- Ryan Harris’ 22 wickets in the last series beautifully complimented the carnage of Johnson at the other but not just in numerical terms. Harris’ control was instrumental in pinning the English to their crease and allowing Johnson to attack and Australia’s ability to consistently take wickets will depend on Hazelwood’s ability to replicate Harris’ control with the latter’s sad retirement this week. It is not enough to throw fast bowlers at the opposition when playing in England – success in English conditions is about the basics of the game and consistency.
- For England I fear their principal problem will be confidence, particularly if Australia takes an early lead. They need the confidence to attack the fast bowlers and also the spinner Lyon who is a fine off-spinner but he is not Shane Warne. Anderson and Broad need the confidence to pitch the ball up and not get stuck bowling length balls; swing has always decimated Australian teams and can do so again. Finally, Cook needs the confidence to attack in the field and not fall into controlling patterns; he does not have the strongest team on paper this time and his old style will not succeed in this series.
- Having said that, the Australians have a certain fragility in their batting that has gone largely unnoticed in recent times. Since the retirements of Hussey and Ponting their batting has relied heavily on first Clarke and then Smith and if both fail there is little substance to the middle order. Warner’s style may prove inconsistent and therefore unreliable in England so middle-order runs are where the tests may be decided and with Clarke on the decline and Smith untested as the front-man in England (he did well 24 months ago but lower in the order) they present a fascinating match-up with Bell and Root (the declining Bell and the young, world-class Root). There is plenty to be decided and that includes the final score line.
Despite my
reservations about holding yet another Ashes series, these tests look set to
entertain and if nothing else gives us an idea of what New Zealand should
expect when they tour Australia in November…
Well that’s
it from here and I hope you join me again
It’s good
bye for now
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